Navigating Geopolitical Uncertainty: A CEO Roundtable

The Shifting Global Landscape

The once-stable global economy, dominated by the U.S., is rapidly transforming into a more volatile and multipolar arena. This shift demands new political acumen from business leaders, forcing them to adapt to unpredictable market forces and evolving international relations.

In a recent CEO roundtable hosted in partnership with Boston Consulting Group, leaders discussed the challenges and strategies for navigating this uncertain terrain. Nikolaus Lang, head of the BCG Henderson Institute, emphasized the need for companies to "build up a geopolitical muscle around talent, functions, and processes."

A Wake-Up Call for U.S. Businesses

Recent U.S. policy shifts, highlighted by Vice President JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference, have signaled a departure from established norms and alliances. This has served as a "clear wake-up call," according to Lang, urging businesses to rethink their global strategies.

CEO Perspectives: Adapting to the New Normal

Marc Casper of Thermo Fisher Scientific highlighted the increased importance of government relations, particularly in educating the administration on policy implications and advocating for U.S. competitiveness. He stressed the need for careful cost management and acknowledged the challenges of rapid adaptation within regulated industries.

Christiana Riley of Santander U.S. discussed the bank's ongoing investment in digital capabilities, emphasizing the opportunities in both established and developing markets. However, she acknowledged the "roller coaster" experience of operating a global organization in the current climate.

Arjun Sethi of Kraken and Tribe Capital stressed the importance of regulatory clarity for market stability, while also noting how regulatory uncertainty has led to strategic retreats from certain markets, including Europe. His firm maintains a presence in other regions, albeit with varying degrees of confidence.

The Impact on Labor Markets and Global Mobility

Jonas Prising of ManpowerGroup pointed out that reshored work often differs significantly from the work that was previously outsourced. He predicts increased automation, leading to a cooling of labor markets, particularly in the U.S. Prising also emphasized the increasing ease with which work can move to talent globally.

Matt Gline of Roivant Sciences offered a more visceral analogy, comparing the current situation to "a cat clinging to the wing of an airplane," highlighting the uncertainty and precariousness many businesses feel.

"Employers are rational. They need to compete on price and will automate to the highest degree possible." - Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup