Navigating the Shifting Sands: A Deep Dive into the Abraham Accords

A Historical Crossroads: The Genesis of Gulf-Israel Normalization

Elham Fakhro's insightful book, *The Abraham Accords: The Gulf States, Israel, and the Limits of Normalization* (Columbia University Press, 2024), dissects the complex web of Gulf-Israel relations leading up to and following the landmark 2020 agreements. The geopolitical landscape of the Gulf has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years, with the Arab Spring intensifying security concerns among Gulf monarchies and fueling anxieties about Iran's expanding regional influence.

Against this turbulent backdrop, the Abraham Accords represent a pivotal moment, breaking from the long-standing precedent of tying Israeli normalization to Palestinian statehood. Driven by shared security concerns, particularly regarding Iran, and the allure of economic cooperation, the accords signaled a new era in regional diplomacy. However, the recent conflict in Gaza has exposed the inherent fragility of these agreements, raising questions about their long-term viability in the face of renewed tensions surrounding the Palestinian cause.

The Architects of Change: A New Generation of Gulf Leadership

Fakhro explores the significant influence of leaders like Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) of the UAE and Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia in reshaping Gulf foreign policy. The Arab Spring emerges as a critical turning point, profoundly impacting the UAE and Bahrain's approach to Israel. The perceived threat from Iran, coupled with Israel's increasingly assertive foreign policy under Netanyahu, fostered a strategic convergence between these Gulf states and Israel.

Furthermore, Israel's established influence within US politics played a catalytic role in the normalization process. The strategic framing of the accords as a diplomatic triumph by both Trump and Netanyahu, especially in the lead-up to their respective elections, highlights the interplay of domestic political considerations and international diplomacy.

The Trump Administration's Deal-Making: Brokering the Abraham Accords

Fakhro delves into the inner workings of the Trump administration's approach to the Abraham Accords, highlighting the instrumental roles of Jared Kushner and Avi Berkowitz. Their direct engagement with Gulf leaders, bypassing traditional diplomatic channels, underscores the administration's personalized and agency-oriented foreign policy style.

“The strategic framing of normalization as a diplomatic victory by both Trump and Netanyahu…exemplifies how electoral considerations were part of the game.”

Beyond Diplomacy: Economic and Military Dimensions of Normalization

The book examines the economic motivations driving normalization, particularly for Bahrain and the UAE. Fakhro provides compelling examples of how initial trade and investment incentives rapidly expanded into cooperation across various sectors, including defense and military technology. This evolution has integrated these nations into a new US-led regional security architecture.

“While beginning primarily as a trade relationship, the Abraham Accords had evolved into a military and defence relationship…bringing Israeli technology and missile defence systems to the Gulf.” - Elham Fakhro

The Limits of Tolerance: Domestic Repression and Public Opinion

Fakhro sheds light on the complex interplay between foreign policy and domestic politics, revealing how Bahrain and the UAE employed narratives of interfaith tolerance and coexistence while simultaneously suppressing domestic opposition to normalization. This apparent paradox underscores the limitations of these states' rhetorical commitment to tolerance, revealing a disconnect between public opinion and official policy.

The Future of Normalization: Challenges and Uncertainties

The book concludes by highlighting the significant constraints on normalization, including negative public perception and the uncertain prospects for lasting regional peace. Fakhro emphasizes Saudi Arabia's reluctance to follow the UAE's path, linking this hesitation to regional power dynamics. The future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain, contingent on addressing the underlying issues that threaten regional stability.

Ultimately, *The Abraham Accords* offers a crucial contribution to Gulf Studies, providing a nuanced and empirically rich analysis of this pivotal moment in Middle Eastern diplomacy.