From Ceasefire to Crisis: A Pivotal Moment for Lebanon

The Ceasefire Agreement

In November 2023, Israel and Hezbollah reached a provisional ceasefire, ending Israel's relentless bombardment of Lebanon and Hezbollah's solidarity attacks with Gaza under Israel's Operation Genocide.

The agreement stipulated that Israel would withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days, while Hezbollah forces would move north.

Amos Hochstein's Visits and Saudi Interests

With the ceasefire nearing its end, Amos Hochstein, a Biden administration official who facilitated the ceasefire, visited Lebanon again, this time after meeting with Saudi leaders.

Hochstein expressed confidence in Israel's withdrawal but acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding President-elect Trump's stance and the potential temptation to renegotiate the agreement.

Hochstein and Saudi interlocutors also showed interest in the ongoing presidential elections in Lebanon.

Joseph Aoun's Election

Joseph Aoun, a Maronite Christian, was elected as Lebanon's president, bringing hope for bridging religious and political divides.

Aoun's election signals a potential shift in Lebanon's stance, with the government aiming to supplant Hezbollah in both physical and political defense against Israel.

Israel's Continued Attacks

Despite the ceasefire, Israel has launched over 800 attacks in Lebanon, claiming to target Hezbollah weapons. However, Lebanon maintains that it is abiding by the agreement.

The so-called "side letter" agreed upon between Israel and the US without Lebanese consent gives Israel the right to continue "self-defense" operations.

Hezbollah's Regrouping and Resistance

Hezbollah, weakened but determined, has attempted to avoid provoking further Israeli attacks while gradually complying with the withdrawal agreement.

Despite Israel's overwhelming response to Hezbollah's limited mortar fire, it has managed to slow down, rather than halt, its compliance.

Hezbollah's Weakening and the Role of Iran and Saudi Arabia

Iran's influence in Lebanon has diminished, while Saudi Arabia's support for Aoun reflects its broader diplomatic shifts. Hezbollah's decline has spurred internal discussions about strengthening its Lebanese identity.

The strategic value of Hezbollah's ground forces calls for its integration into the Lebanese military and government to bolster Lebanon's defense.

A Unified Lebanon for Independence and Self-Reliance

Lebanon's newly elected president, Aoun, has expressed his commitment to uniting the country and confronting challenges from within and outside its borders.

A unified Lebanon, backed by regional allies and leveraging its own strengths, could strengthen its resistance to Israeli aggression and self-reliance against external interference.