Starmer's High-Stakes White House Visit: A Balancing Act with Trump

Navigating the Trump Card: Ukraine, Defense, and a World of Uncertainties

Sir Keir Starmer's upcoming White House visit is fraught with both peril and potential. A week of intense preparation culminates in a meeting that could reshape the UK's relationship with the US, and significantly impact the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Will it be a diplomatic triumph, a "Trumpportunity" as one insider puts it, or a "gruesome sell-out"? The stakes couldn't be higher.

Trump's recent accusation that Starmer "did nothing" to prevent the Ukraine conflict adds another layer of complexity. How will Starmer navigate this charged atmosphere? A key focus will be defense spending, a long-standing pressure point for the UK. With demands growing from all sides, including Trump, the government faces a difficult choice: increase spending despite tight public finances, or risk further transatlantic tension.

One Trump backer advises a bold approach: "A proper commitment, not just a roadmap... say 'Yes, we'll hit it by this date,' and throw in some more." The suggestion is a defense spend of 3% or more of GDP. The question is, will Starmer choose to take the initiative, or be forced into a corner by Trump?

Securing a Lasting Peace: The Future of Ukraine

The heart of the matter remains Ukraine. As ceasefire discussions gain momentum, questions arise about the nature of any potential agreement. Behind the scenes, UK and French military planners are exploring options, including a "reassurance force" of up to 30,000 troops to be deployed after a ceasefire. This force could protect vital infrastructure and potentially even key cities.

While not a solidified plan, the idea underscores the need for European nations to demonstrate a commitment to lasting peace, rather than relying solely on the US. Starmer has publicly aired these options, signaling a proactive stance. But the true challenge lies in convincing Trump of their viability and ensuring a deal that doesn't leave Ukraine vulnerable to future aggression.

Trump's unpredictable nature adds a layer of uncertainty. His fluctuating pronouncements on Zelensky, from "dictator" to "courageous leader," leave many questioning his true intentions. Is he genuinely committed to a lasting peace, or merely seeking a quick "sugar rush" of a deal, as one former defense minister suggests?

Beyond Ukraine: Leveraging Trump's Unpredictability

While Ukraine and defense spending dominate the agenda, Trump's tendency to deviate from script offers other opportunities. Starmer could strategically introduce additional topics, from trade deals to tech regulation, leveraging Trump's "freewheeling style" to the UK's advantage. This could include discussions on American Liquid Natural Gas, the Chagos Islands, China policy, or even Apple's recent disputes with the UK government.

Starmer faces a daunting task: navigating the complexities of international diplomacy while grappling with a volatile and unpredictable US president. This early test of his leadership presents both significant risks and the chance to make a real impact on the global stage. As one Whitehall observer notes, while working with Trump is akin to "handling a live firework," the inherent instability also creates unique opportunities for a Prime Minister seeking to define his place on the world stage.

This week will be crucial for Starmer, presenting him with a multitude of dangers, but also, a chance to lead.